WP5-Future scenario modelling


The WP is focused on the definition of future climatic and land-use scenarios to apply for rockfall hazard models. For climatic change scenario, existing climatic model will be used to simulate permafrost degradation due to temperature rise and increasing of rainfall extremes at high altitudes. Thanks to the relationships between meteoclimatic conditions and rockfall occurrence, new probability of occurrence will be calculated, leading to new hazard and risk scenarios. For land use changes, two possible scenarios will be considered:

1) the effect of forest development at higher altitude due to temperature rise and permafrost degradation, leading to new propagation scenarios;

2) the effect of increasing urbanization leading to new risk scenarios.